1.0 DCPLUS 20250630 10123000 20250709 10123000 https://www.arcgis.com/sharing/rest/content/items/0bd7d81a57224cbea9a33d7b1358bad4/info/thumbnail/thumbnail1753964823662.png https://www.arcgis.com/home/item.html?id=0bd7d81a57224cbea9a33d7b1358bad4 0bd7d81a57224cbea9a33d7b1358bad4 Feature Service https://services2.arcgis.com/jUpNdisbWqRpMo35/arcgis/rest/services/climate_conflict_points_layer/FeatureServer Climate Conflict Vulnerability Index (CCVI) 2025-06-30T10:12:30 2025-07-09T10:46:59 climateconflictat riskpeopleesri_deAuswärtigesAmtKlimaKonflikteRisikoCCVINaturgefahren Climate Conflict Vulnerability Index (CCVI) provided by the Federal Foreign Office, the Center for Crisis Early Warning, and the FutureLab of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. As of June 2026. The CCVI maps current global risks by linking climate and conflict hazards with local vulnerabilities to make regions worldwide comparable. These are represented as a dot layer, with each dot representing the center of a grid cell (5° x 5° = 55 km x 55 km at the equator).Further informationThe CCVI is a combined index for representing climate and conflict risks. It follows the IPCC risk definition and integrates hazards, exposure, and vulnerability.It is divided into two risk factors: climate and conflict.Climate risk refers to the potential adverse impacts resulting from the interplay of climate hazards, vulnerability, and exposure. The CCVI captures climate risks that are directly related to human security. These include risks related to living standards, human health, food security, water security, peace, and mobility.Conflict risk refers to the potential negative impacts arising from the interplay of conflict hazards, vulnerability, and exposure. Conflict hazards encompass the presence of current or recent violence and unrest, which are endogenously linked to socioeconomic and political vulnerability. Conflicts take many different forms, involve various types of actors, and revolve around many different causes. The risks are divided into three pillars: climate hazards, vulnerability, and conflict hazards.The climate pillar addresses the physical climate conditions that can harm society, the so-called climate hazards. It comprises three dimensions: extreme events in the past year, extreme events in the past seven years, and changes in average conditions such as temperature and sea level over the past ten years. These hazards are key to assessing climate-related risks to human security.The vulnerability pillar comprises four dimensions: socioeconomic, political, demographic, and environmental vulnerability. The degree of vulnerability in these four key dimensions determines the extent to which populations affected by climate and conflict hazards are impacted.The conflict pillar encompasses the hazards caused by organized armed violence. It comprises three dimensions: the current extent of armed violence, which not only compromises physical security but often also leads to destruction and reduced economic capacity; the persistence of armed violence, as violence tends to recur in the same regions once it has begun; and existing social tensions that could escalate into armed violence in the future.These three pillars are further subdivided into dimensions, ultimately comprising 50 indicators that form the basis of the calculation (e.g., heat waves, floods, etc.).Descriptions - Climate:Cyclones:Tropical cyclones are rotating storms with strong winds and heavy rainfall. Depending on the location, they are called hurricanes, typhoons, or cyclones. Tropical cyclones damage crops and the built environment, displace people, and cause fatalities.Drought: Droughts are extended periods of unusually dry conditions. Due to their impact on cropping systems, livestock numbers, and water availability, droughts pose a particular risk to food and water security, among other things.SPEI: “The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) is a drought index based on the water balance. The water balance is defined as the difference between precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET). Precipitation is measured at weather stations, while potential evapotranspiration can be estimated using various methods, as it is not part of the standard measurement program of weather stations. The distribution function of the water balance, determined from the observations, is transformed into a standard normal distribution. For each water balance value, the position within the distribution can be specified in standard deviations. If the SPEI value is less than minus one standard deviation, a drought is declared.” (<a target='_blank' href='https://www.dwd.de/DE/service/lexikon/Functions/glossar.html?lv3=603332&lv2=102248' rel='nofollow ugc noopener noreferrer'>Weather and Climate - German Meteorological Service - Glossary - S - Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI)</a>). Forest fires:Forest fires are unplanned or uncontrolled fires. They can cause crop loss, damage harvests, and lead to pollution that affects human health.Heat wave: Heat waves are periods of unusually hot weather lasting at least three days.Heavy rainfall: Heavy rainfall is unusually high amounts of precipitation within a short period of time. Descriptions - Conflict:Armed violence: The impact of armed violence affects the livelihoods of local communities over long periods of time. In addition to the obvious risks to physical security, this often leads to the destruction of property and infrastructure and triggers migration movements. Armed conflicts are described as “development in reverse gear”.Tensions: Social tensions measure popular unrest as a potential precursor to violence. Public expressions of discontent in the form of protests and riots can escalate into further violence, but can also be resolved or successfully suppressed through concessions and compromises. Popular unrest in the form of public expressions of discontent and grievances such as protests and riots can be an indication of existing tensions in society and can escalate into violent conflicts in the future. Descriptions - Vulnerability:Demographic development: Affects pressure on resources and potential for community tensions, reducing resilience and adaptability.Population growth: Rapid population growth increases vulnerability because it strains public resources, increases competition for jobs and resources, and increases environmental pollution.Uprooted people: People within a society who have been forcibly removed from their homes and need help. Displaced people, who are often poorly integrated into society and do not receive adequate public support, live in precarious conditions and have limited access to services, making them more vulnerable than their hosts. Political Vulnerability:Reflects the shortcomings of political systems, such as poor governance and weak democracy. Poor governance, characterized by corruption, a weak rule of law, and inadequate service provision, hinders crisis response and public investment, increasing vulnerability. Non-democratic systems increase risk by neglecting vulnerable groups, making them particularly susceptible to threats.Deprivation of Civil Rights: Citizens in countries with fewer freedoms are assumed to be more vulnerable, as dissenting opinions are less likely to be heard and considered in disaster risk management.Ethnic Vulnerability:Measures the extent to which certain ethnic groups are excluded from political power. Such exclusion can lead to discrimination and inequality in resources, services, and opportunities, increasing the vulnerability of excluded groups.Gender Inequality:Refers to the unequal treatment of people based on their gender. Discriminatory formal and informal norms, rules, and values can make women more vulnerable to danger by, for example, restricting their freedom of movement and access to resources.Institutional vulnerability:Measures the reliability of institutions and the rule of law. Weak institutions increase vulnerability because they lead to inefficient resource allocation, reduce coping and adaptive capacity, and potentially fuel grievances and conflict.Political system vulnerability:Measures the fairness and inclusiveness of a political system, as well as citizen participation in that system. Less inclusive systems increase vulnerability because political decisions are less likely to consider all social groups.Socioeconomic vulnerability:Has a significant impact on available resources. It manifests itself differently at various levels of social aggregation. For individuals, characteristics include poverty, food insecurity, low levels of education, poor health, and limited adaptive capacity. At higher levels, characteristics include inequality, dependence on rain-fed agriculture, and external dependence.Economic Dependence:Economic dependence on agriculture measures the importance of agriculture to a country's economy and as a source of income for its population. Higher dependence increases vulnerability, as agriculture is sensitive to climate and conflict threats.Educational Vulnerability:Educational vulnerability shows how educational deficits contribute to susceptibility to adverse consequences. Higher levels of education improve the ability to prepare for and cope with threats, while lower levels of education increase vulnerability.Health Vulnerability:Reflects susceptibility to adverse consequences resulting from poor health and inadequate health systems. Health status affects the ability to cope with or adapt to threats, with poor health being a major factor in vulnerability.Economic Inequality:Captures the extent to which a society's resources are unequally distributed. High levels of inequality often reflect the limited opportunities of disadvantaged people to adapt to climate change, respond to climate hazards, and protect themselves during conflict. Inequality is measured by income distribution within countries.Food security:Measures the lack of or instability of food availability, access, and use. Food insecurity weakens people's ability to withstand and recover from shocks, making them less resilient compared to well-nourished populations.Economic capacity:Reflects local economic capacity. Lower economic capacity increases vulnerability to climate and conflict hazards because it limits the ability to invest in adaptation, provide disaster relief, and absorb shocks. Information about the methods used and further insights can be found at <a target='_blank' href='https://climate-conflict.org/www/latest-data/docs/' rel='nofollow ugc noopener noreferrer'>https://climate-conflict.org/www/latest-data/docs/</a>. Source<a target='_blank' href='https://climate-conflict.org/www' rel='nofollow ugc noopener noreferrer'>Climate-Conflict-Vulnerability Index (CCVI)</a> | Last accessed July 13, 2026 Data-ProcessingThe data was temporarily stored via the link, converted to a CSV file, and published as a feature layer. Database2026 Climate-Conflict Vulnerability Index (CCVI), available at: <a target='_blank' href='https://climate-conflict.org/www' rel='nofollow ugc noopener noreferrer'>https://climate-conflict.org/www</a>. Published by the FutureLab - Security, Ethnic Conflicts and Migration at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, the Center for Crisis Early Warnings of the German Armed Forces - University of Munich, and the German Federal Foreign Office. Licensed under the <a target='_blank' href='https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/' rel='nofollow ugc noopener noreferrer'>Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (CC BY-NC 4.0).</a> -179.25 179.25 83.25 -55.25 1 © Universität der Bundeswehr München / PIK / Auswärtiges Amt [2026] 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